Development of a Template of Local Antecedents for Family Decisions in
College Choice

Dr. James J. Bird
jjbird@uncc.edu
University of North Carolina - Charlotte
Dr. Do-Hong Kim
DKim15@uncc.edu
University of North Carolina - Charlotte

Abstract

Families need to begin thinking about post high school planning much earlier than prom season and graduation parties.  Antecedents of college or career choice decisions can be facilitated by school districts using locally grown data profiles and applied to late elementary and middle school students.  The purpose of this study was to develop a data template that would enable a school to respond empirically to the following parental question, "What does my 12 year old daughter need to do over the next 6 years to be in a position upon graduation from our high school to get into the state university?"

Patterns of classes, grades, and test scores were studied in 3 successive graduating classes of a mid-western suburban high school. Descriptive statistics indicate that the prestigious college group had the highest mean scores on 20 of 23 variables.  Discriminant analysis revealed the most influential variables were cumulative grade point average and the total number of advanced courses taken.  These data can be collected on a local template and used for future profile matriculation decisions among parents, students, and counselors.
Development of a Template of Local Antecedents for Family Decisions in College Choice

College choice decisions of three graduating classes were tracked for the purpose of discerning patterns of classes taken, grades earned, and test scores attained so that a decision-making template could be developed for use by future students and parents.

Objectives

The purpose of the study was to develop a decision-making template that future students and parents could use when making choices about course selection and goal setting.

Perspective

In order to serve future student cohort groups, the researchers looked back at archival data of three high school graduating classes of a suburban, mid-western school district.  Individual student records were examined for courses taken, grades earned, and test scores attained.  In addition, the eventual choice of college to attend by the students of each class was recorded and placed in reputational categories.  As a result of the analysis, parents of elementary and middle school students can be made aware of patterns of previous graduates going to colleges in which parents may have interest.  In other words, if a family is interested in pursuing matriculation into X-university, it knows what district graduates in the past took for classes, what their grades were, and what test scores they attained.

Methods

Because the product of this study was a template, it was important to adhere to a framework of research design that accommodated the appropriate sequencing of both data collection and analyses.  The researchers were working with archival data so they had control over when to introduce variables for consideration.  Students were placed into one of four groupings by their level of colleges chosen: (a) no colleges, (b) community colleges, (c) mid-level colleges, and (d) prestigious colleges.  Descriptive statistics were used to compare student scale scores among the four groups of college choice.  A discriminant analysis was performed to determine significant predictor variables in distinguishing among the four groups. These groupings were then compared to ascertain patterns of variance linked to previous behavior of classes taken, grades earned, and test scores attained. The study assumes that families have contemplated a range of possible colleges for their youngster's eventual matriculation.  The study, therefore, is not about college choice per se but rather about parents studying the college choices of previous families whose children have already graduated.  The study is not about career choice or selection of major fields of study both of which may influence choice of campus to attend.  The family educational background and ability to afford higher education were also beyond the purview of this study.

Data Source

For successive graduating classes of 2002, 2003, and 2004, the school district began tracking its high school students' records and data concerning college choice.  The dependent variable is group membership by college choice. College choice data was gathered directly from students in the spring of their senior year and indicate where the student intended to go to college that fall.  The colleges and universities chosen were placed into four categories reflective of degree of prestige according to the rankings by U.S. News and World Report publication. The number of students identified for each category was 108 for no colleges, 88 for community colleges, 151 for mid-level colleges, and 93 for prestigious colleges. Several independent variables were used to predict the group membership. The measures serving as predictors are listed as follows: courses taken, course departments, number of rigorous courses, grades, rank-in-class, credits earned, state and national test scores.

Results and Conclusions

 The results revealed patterns of difference among the four college choice groups on 20 of the 23 variables included in the data collection template.  Descriptive statistics indicate that the prestigious college group had the highest mean scores, overall, followed by the mid-level college group, the no college group, and the community college group.  The prestigious college group had the highest mean scores on all variables with the exception of the variable of earned art
department credits.  Statistical analyses showed that the most influential variables contributing to the differences among the groups were cumulative grade point average and the total number of advanced courses taken.  Also, individual year GPAs and state assessment math test scores contributed to the differences among groups.  Those students choosing to attend prestigious colleges had strong academic starts in ninth grade.  They signed up for difficult classes and earned high grades in those classes.  This is important for future parents and students to understand.  Achievement begins to count in ninth grade and it stays documented permanently in school records. Those future students pining for matriculation to elite colleges need to achieve from the start of their high school careers.  They then have to sustain those strong starts throughout their four years.  In each group and in each class there was a drop off of grade point average between the ninth and tenth grades.  The pattern then reversed and each succeeding set of grades were higher then the previous year from tenth to eleventh grade and from eleventh to twelfth grade. The highest grade point averages were achieved in the twelfth grade for all groups in each class which indicates strong finishes by the
students, as well.